Opinion & Analysis

Three scenarios that get Tiger Woods into the FedEx Cup Playoffs

Published

12 years ago

Jul 29, 2014

In 2013, Tiger Woods entered the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational leading the FedEx Cup standings. Fifty-two weeks later, he’s 215th!

There are only three events left–and just two for Tiger–before The Playoffs are set and Woods needs to jump 90 spots in that span to qualify.

He currently owns 45 FedEx Cup points, with position No. 125 possessing 403 points. The final Top-125 cutoff will probably come in around 450 points, meaning Woods needs 405 points in the next two events to qualify.

Woods missed the Playoffs in 2011. Here’s the scenarios and odds of avoiding that fate:

Just Win, Baby

If Woods wins the Bridgestone, he receives 550 points. And it’s 600 for the PGA Championship. Either way, he is no doubt in the Playoffs.

A dream scenario for sure, but highly chimerical when looking at Woods in 2014. There’s little tape to go off of in 2014, as the 38-year-old has put in just 20 full rounds of work.

Despite the limited play, we can see that the golf is largely poor. Yes, injury hindered him early on, but in his two starts since returning from back surgery, Woods flashed one great display of 18 holes and five poor-to-abysmal rounds.

His game is in need of an insane turnaround if he were searching for a win at this week’s opposite field event, let alone a WGC or a major. (And it’s probably not helping that he went on vacation this week.)

So, to be quite frank, the odds of this happening are perilously slim. Yes, Woods’ love affair at Firestone is no doubt strong with eight wins through the Bridgestone. He also previously won a PGA at Valhalla, where the major plays host again in two weeks.

But good vibrations can only go so far, which Woods proved when his struggling game in 2010 produced a rock bottom T78 showing at Firestone.

If you’re counting on Woods to win before the Playoffs, prepare to be disappointed.

Consecutive Top-Three Finishes (Not Wins)

In regular PGA Tour events, consecutive solo thirds would net 380 points, short of the (admittedly, arbitrary) 405 threshold we have set for Woods.

For the Bridgestone and the PGA though, these same results add up to 410, which is just enough for Woods. And as for other top-three scenarios, a solo second at the Bridgestone and a solo third at the PGA gives 525 points, the opposite 530, and consecutive solo runner-ups 645.

In other words, back-to-back solo top-threes gives Woods a coveted top 125 spot.

Still, while this scenario is more likely than a victory, it’s only marginally so. If Woods’ game needs a miracle cure to be ready to win, counting on top-three level play is unwise too. A win also affords Woods a throw-away tournament, whereas consecutive top-threes means the 38-year-old can’t bungle a single round. And it’s highly advised the top-threes are solo, otherwise it gets dicey when points are divided up equally among tied finishers.

Plenty of pratfalls, but this way is overall slightly easier. The difference between a win and a top-three is sometimes minimal, other times quite significant. And while it’s unlikely Woods wins without fantastic form, his game may just need to be in a pretty good place for consecutive top-threes. Save the 2010 and 2011 nightmares, Woods has never finished outside the top 10 at the Bridgestone and just once outside the top four. And his one showing at Valhalla was a win.

Certainly some positives there, but because of the shattered state of Woods’ game at the moment, this scenario remains a pipe dream.

A Solo Runner-Up and Another Top-10

We saved Woods’ most likely shot for last, and it’s probably the only scenario that is eminently plausible.

A solo second this week and any solo finish eighth or better at the PGA Championship nets the 405 points the 38-year-old needs. And if that solo runner-up is switched to the PGA, any untied top-10 finish at the Bridgestone breaks the 405 barrier.

Tied finishes are trickier. All you need to know is that finishing solo second is far more important than the other top-10 being untied.

Anyway, this is the most appealing option for a Woods fan. Unlike the consecutive top-threes scenario, Woods may only have to play well at all in one event to complete this task. The top-10 can be as back door as the 38-year-old wants it be, with the FedEx Cup standings omitting style points. As for the event where he must be on form, a solo second requires a high level of play, but not necessarily that close to a winning level in certain events (See: 2014 U.S. Open).

Really if Woods’ game shows any semblance of function throughout this week, he’ll pretty much finish in the top 10, leaving him a week to further progress for a solo second. And if his game is working quite well off the bat, that solo second at the Bridgestone won’t be too tough to attain, and that leaves a top-eight at the PGA.

I wouldn’t bet heavily on any of the three options, but I would keep an eye on this one. We’re still in the realm of “significantly unlikely” here, but this scenario gives him more than an infinitesimal chance of reaching the top 125.

Overall though, the picture looks bleak. Expect a 2014 FedEx Cup run without golf’s leading man.

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Kevin Casey

Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

26 Comments

Ray Guthrie

Aug 2, 2014 at 3:39 pm

Can he still qualify if he plays in Greensboro

Reply Report comment
- Kevin Casey
  
  Aug 6, 2014 at 5:54 pm
  
  So, I’d say at this point he’s not playing in Greensboro. He didn’t in 2011 when he was in this position and, when asked if he would do so this year, he was noncommittal. And that was before the back problems he had at Firestone.
  
  Nonetheless, let’s say he does decide to play there. To answer your question, he can still qualify if he plays at Greensboro. A win at either the PGA or Greensboro would easily be enough to get him in. If he doesn’t win though, it’s a lot trickier. Since he amassed zero points at Firestone, he still needs 405 points to qualify (if 450 ends up being the cutoff as I suggested). And if he’s playing Greensboro he still has two events left then. But it’s actually more of an uphill climb than before. I gave scenarios based on Tiger teeing it up at Firestone and the PGA. With the PGA and Greensboro, that’s still two events but Greensboro offers less total points than a WGC, so we have to adjust Tiger’s finishes a little higher.
  
  If Tiger doesn’t win, the consecutive solo top-threes doesn’t necessarily work anymore. Two straight solo thirds leave him short. But a solo second and solo third or two solo seconds will get him to 450 total. Again, I won’t get into tied finishes because points are split equally among all of those tied.
  
  As for the runner-up and other top-10 scenario, we once again get more restrictive. A solo runner-up at the PGA and any solo finish in the top 10 at Greensboro gets him to 450 total. When Greensboro is the runner-up though, he must finish solo sixth or better at the PGA. So yeah, a daunting task here. Even if Tiger plays at Greensboro, chances are slim for him to make the Playoffs.
  
  Reply Report comment
Bob

Jul 30, 2014 at 3:36 pm

Let me just say that I’m a Tiger fan and I hope he breaks Jack’s record; however I don’t think Tiger will win a tournament in 2014

Reply Report comment
Bob Jones

Jul 30, 2014 at 2:44 pm

Why does anybody still care what Tiger does or doesn’t do? Enough already.

Reply Report comment
- Christosterone
  
  Jul 30, 2014 at 3:28 pm
  
  He has won 79 tournaments.
  Woods is a singular talent of his generation and belongs with very few others on golf’s Mount Rushmore.
  That is why people care.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Rob
    
    Jul 30, 2014 at 5:55 pm
    
    @ Chrisostetone:
    
    Pretty much nailed it. You could have also added that he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Rich
      
      Jul 30, 2014 at 10:21 pm
      
      Not everyone likes a show off
      
      Reply Report comment
    - Rich
      
      Jul 31, 2014 at 2:38 am
      
      Had to also mention that I saw Rory McIlroy play in the Australian Open last year and he hit driver off the 10th. 380m (416yrds) hole and he had 56m (61yrds) in for his second. If that’s not exciting golf, I’m not sure what is. He out drove Adam Scott by 20-30 yards. It was amazing. Make sure you don’t miss all the other exciting golf going on while your watching Tiger.
      
      Reply Report comment
      - Dr. Troy
        
        Jul 31, 2014 at 7:15 am
        
        Just because we/I/others like Tiger and appreciate the excitement and energy he has always brought to the game, doesn’t mean(speaking for the others) that we don’t enjoy Rors dominate performances…or several other players for that matter….That’s what’s always confused me in these TW posts…The avg Joe Schmo fan might need Tiger or Phil to watch the coverage, but most of us don’t…although it’s preferred…
        
        Reply Report comment
      - Rich
        
        Aug 1, 2014 at 4:11 am
        
        Dr Troy, just a reply to Rob as he said that “he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches”. A true golf fan likes all golf no matter who plays. I don’t like tiger but I hate the band wagon even more.
        
        Reply Report comment
- bradford
  
  Jul 31, 2014 at 8:45 am
  
  Sometimes I sit and watch average golfers from my back porch.
  It’s nice…
  
  …but honestly, I’d prefer to watch the best player in the history of the game–even if he’s a bit off.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Rich
    
    Aug 1, 2014 at 4:12 am
    
    That’s good for you then because that’s as good as it’s gonna be from now on.
    
    Reply Report comment
- raul
  
  Jul 31, 2014 at 8:54 am
  
  Yet you read this which shows that you do, indeed, care about Tiger. Whether you like the excitement he brings or you love to hate him, you still care.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Eldrick
    
    Aug 1, 2014 at 4:13 am
    
    This is such a lame comment dude
    
    Reply Report comment
BOBBY D

Jul 30, 2014 at 1:05 pm

win and qualify or go home…eldrick doesn’t belong on the team or in the fed ex…too bad!!!!

Reply Report comment
- bradford
  
  Jul 31, 2014 at 8:59 am
  
  Agreed, and I think Tiger would also agree–but that’s only based on every interview he’s had about it. He always says he wants to be on it but if he also wants to earn it.
  
  Reply Report comment
Stu

Jul 30, 2014 at 8:23 am

As a European, my biggest fear is that Tiger gets a Captain’s pick and is then played ‘selectively’ in the fourballs where he has a partner to take the pressure off his game. So many US Captains have failed to grasp he performs best when he does not have to worry about others. Play him in the two fourballs and singles, a good shot at 2.5pts from 3.0 Keep picking him for the foursomes and he gets the same points, but from 5 giving Europe a couple of wins.

Reply Report comment
Hellstorm

Jul 30, 2014 at 12:45 am

He will be on the Ryder Cup….thats pretty much locked up. Somebody big is going to get left off the roster but it won’t be Woods.

Reply Report comment
JJ Man

Jul 29, 2014 at 1:52 pm

What scenario gets him into the Ryder Cup – if he has 2 top 20 finishes, do you pick him??

Reply Report comment
- Jbun
  
  Jul 29, 2014 at 2:31 pm
  
  How could you not.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Captain Obvious
    
    Jul 29, 2014 at 3:43 pm
    
    If you had a brain and did not care what the media and talking heads would spew.
    
    Reply Report comment
- Brian
  
  Jul 29, 2014 at 5:51 pm
  
  I think a win and a top 2 is the only way he gets in. Tom Watson wants to win, and he will pick who he thinks will win the cup for USA. If tiger doesn’t win or show a great improvement from his last 2 starts I think you pick someone else.
  
  Also, I think tiger needs more regular tourney reps, I think he should take advantage of the wrap around season and take some time to play a few smaller tourneys to get back into the swing of things. It would be good to have a big name in these smaller events and good for tiger to gain some confidence
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Dan
    
    Jul 30, 2014 at 11:36 am
    
    “reps”……… I love it. Tigerspeak.
    
    I cant wait until Saturday so I can get another “rep” in.
    
    Hey Dan, what time is your “rep” this weekend? I have a threesome on the Red @ Bethpage, are you in?
    
    I hope its not another 5+ hour “rep” this weekend.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - Dr. Troy
    
    Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am
    
    couldn’t agree more
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Dr. Troy
      
      Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am
      
      ***in regards to him playing more that is…
      
      Reply Report comment
      - Eldrick
        
        Aug 1, 2014 at 7:55 am
        
        Can you come to my house and play and I don’t mean golf. I get the feeling you like me some.
        
        Reply Report comment

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