Opinion & Analysis

Could the 2010 PGA Championship predict this year’s U.S. Open winner?

Published

12 years ago

Jun 11, 2014

Picking a winner in golf is far from easy. I have dabbled in some small golf wagers over the years and the first time I put some dough on a pick it turned out quite well. Let’s just say I was the only one in my 2011 Masters pool to pick Charl Schwartzel.

I’ve yet to back up that wizard-like pick, and it has caused me to see once again how hard it is to call the winner. I’m feeling better about my picks for this year’s U.S. Open, however, because I foresee parallels between this year’s leaderboard at Pinehurst No. 2 and the 2010 PGA Championship leaderboard at Whistling Straits.

Sound far-fetched? Here’s a list of 9 of the top-12 finishers at Whistling Straits, who also have the backing of many experts this week at Pinehurst:

Winner: Martin Kaymer (11-under, won in playoff)
Runner-up: Bubba Watson (11-under)
T3: Zach Johnson (10-under)
T3: Rory Mcllroy (10-under)
T5: Jason Dufner (9-under)
T5: Dustin Johnson (9-under)
T10: Matt Kuchar (7-under)
T10: Jason Day (7-under)
T12: Phil Mickelson (6-under)

The 2010 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits was monumental in terms of what could have been. Everyone remembers Dustin Johnson unknowingly grounding his club in a hazard on the 72nd hole, resulting in a two-shot penalty that kept him out of a playoff that could have earned him his first major championship. Bubba Watson also blew his first chance to win a major when he didn’t take enough club to reach the green in the playoff, allowing Martin Kaymer to two putt for a bogey and the win.

Watson, McIlroy have Dufner have all claimed major championship since 2010, leaving Johnson, Kuchar and Day as the only players on this list to have not won a major. Those three golfers are also thought to be three of the best golfers to have not won a major in their careers, and they are playing well so far in 2014 and are inside the top-20 in the Official World Golf Rankings.

The only question mark is Day, who after winning the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship has struggled with a thumb injury. But the 26-year-old says he’s healthy, and with two runner-up finishes in U.S. Opens the last three years, golf fans have little reason to doubt him.

No two major championship venues other are exactly alike with the exception of the Masters, which is held each year at Augusta National, but it appears that Pinehurst No. 2 and Whistling Straits are more similar than they are different. They’re both long golf course with lots of sandy areas, and length and strategy will be equally important as golfers try to make birdies this week and keep big numbers off their cards.

Is this the year that what could have been becomes what should have been? Nothing indicates future success in major championships more than close calls, and Johnson, Kuchar and Day have more of them than most golfers. And with Whistling Straits and Pinehurst No. 2 looking somewhat similar to each other, I like their chances this week.

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Oliver Berg

Oliver Berg is a golf fanatic whose roots in the game were formed in the rugged and rocky golf links of Southern Ontario, Canada. By putting the pen to paper, or more appropriately, his fingers to the keyboard, Oliver turned his passion for ‘talking golf’ online by starting The High Fade Golf Blog. Oliver works in the digital marketing space in the fashion industry in Toronto and has applied what he’s learned from social media marketing to his own Instagram golf account - @thehighfade. Having grown up in a family of golfers, Oliver was given a special gift at young age from his grandmother -- a pillow that reads “Life’s a game, but Golf is serious” is something that he sleeps beside every night, and he pretty much lives by that!

10 Comments

Pat

Jun 16, 2014 at 9:56 am

Looks like this article was pretty spot on!

Reply Report comment
Joon

Jun 13, 2014 at 8:34 pm

Kaymer is kicking butt. now whatdo you have to say Ross?

Reply Report comment
RussT

Jun 13, 2014 at 8:25 pm

Well, well, what do you know?! Kaymer with the 36 hole lead, by 6 strokes.

Reply Report comment
Keith

Jun 12, 2014 at 12:42 am

The Aussies will play very well here. Scott, Day, Ogilvy and Senden. This track is very much like the Sandbelt Courses in Melbourne. If the wind blows, very much an ozfest.

Reply Report comment
tbomb

Jun 11, 2014 at 1:47 pm

The thing I struggle with about your theory, along with PgaTour.com and the other U.S Open prediction picks posted on Wrx, is the fact that Only 3 Americans have won this Championship in the last 10 years. I think the leader board with see on Sunday with be the opposite of the one posted above; 2 Americans and a bunch of Europeans.

Reply Report comment
Ross

Jun 11, 2014 at 1:40 pm

That has got be the worst article I’ve ever read. It’s like saying that beacause Valentino Rossi Finished 2nd at a race in 2010 at whatever track that he will win his next Moto GP race because both tracks are made of tar and the lines are painted white at both race tracks.
Nothing like a close call in 2010 to motivate you to win at a completely different event in 2014.
Makes sense right?

Reply Report comment
- Ben
  
  Jun 11, 2014 at 2:35 pm
  
  Ross, I think the implication is that the course setups resemble each other to a certain extent thus the players mentioned in the article MAY have games better suited to this layout as well.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Ross
    
    Jun 11, 2014 at 2:56 pm
    
    Ben, I get that. Form however plays a much bigger role in a players chances of winning a major, rather than slight similarities to a course played 4 years ago
    
    Reply Report comment
- AJ
  
  Jun 16, 2014 at 5:34 am
  
  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
  
  Apology now due, methinks.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Ross
    
    Jun 16, 2014 at 2:03 pm
    
    I have to eat my words with my tail between my legs. Well played to Kaymer and apologies to Oliver
    
    Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience

Published

5 days ago

Jun 5, 2026

Andrew Von Lossow

This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.

I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.

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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.

With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.

Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!

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Published

7 days ago

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