By Michael Williams

Special to GolfWRX

Ok, let’s start with a show of hands: how many of you out there predicting that Ken “Tin Cup” Duke would be in contention at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am?

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

I’ll admit that I thought that for the first three rounds I thought he was the head of global banking for Wachovia; turns out he’s a Tour pro who flirted with victory but fell victim to Sunday pressure and a shaky putter to shoot a disappointing 74.

But he beat Tiger Woods by a shot on Sunday.

In one of the marquee matchups that the sport both craves and requires, Phil Mickelson was paired with Tiger in the next to last group at a venue where they have both enjoyed success. Mickelson put a good old-fashioned beatdown on Tiger, besting him by 11 stokes. For goodness sake, after the sixth hole Tony Romo was carrying that team.

So there are four things to consider as we sip our morning coffee; Tiger’s performance standalone, Phil’s performance standalone, the state of their rivalry and what Sunday’s results can tell us about future outcomes.

While Woods suffered through yet another Sunday, Bloody Sunday, Phil Mickelson played some of the most inspired golf that he has produced for years. It always seems that Mickelson can contend anywhere on the Tour’s California swing. But on Sunday he did more than contend; he dominated. After a recent adjustment from Butch Harmon, Mickelson was long and straight off the tee and dialed in with he irons, putting up sensational numbers like 93 percent driving accuracy and 77 percent greens in regulation.

Given all of that, the most impressive numbers for Phil were 5-under, 12, 15, and 204. 5-under is the score that Mickelson put up for the first six holes, putting the entire field on notice that it would have to go low or go home. 12 is the hole where Tiger holed out of a greenside bunker, momentarily sparking hope for a back-nine miracle. But Mickelson promptly squashed that notion with a scintillating 30-foot par putt; and for good measure he saved par again on 15 with a 40-foot bomb. And what about 204? That’s the distance of Mickelson’s tee shot on the 543-yard 18^th.  Rather than risk disaster needlessly, Mickelson hit two short, straight shots to leave himself with 111 yards. He spun a wedge to 5 feet and dropped nailed that one for a birdie that clinched the title.  Clearly, Phil had discovered what all of us bums have known for years; it’s a much easier game out of the fairway. In past years, he might have been convinced to “make a statement” and go for eagle on the 18^th. And where the tents were at Winged Foot, there was nothing but the Pacific Ocean to catch any errant shots by Mickelson. But this time he traded guts for glory. It’s the kind of mature decision-making that doesn’t necessarily win events but it definitely doesn’t give them away senselessly.

Tiger on the other hand, would be glad to have a solid performance on any given Sunday.  He seemed tentative about his technique yet again, taking more and more exaggerated practice swings in an effort to conjure up some muscle memory. He gave new meaning to the phrase “Sunday Driver”, his ball flying to one side of the course while his club was helicoptering to Earth in the other direction. His irons were imprecise at best, sloppy at worst.  But more disturbing than Tiger’s overall performance was his disastrous putting. He seemed rock solid with the flat stick on the same course the day before, but on Sunday he was lost. He had neither green speed or line locked in, making every putt an adventure. And on the short putts, Woods has seemingly switch places with Mickelson. Tiger has been the best quite possibly the best short putter of all time; Phil on the other hand could take the easiest gimme and turn it into a tragi-comic tale.  But yesterday it was Phil who looked confident over every putt from every distance, while Tiger could only drop his head and silently whisper, “Serenity Now”. The enduring image of the weekend is Mickelson looking on in disbelief as his nemesis rammed a 3-foot birdie putt 6 feet past the hole. “I want it…but not like this,” was the sentiment his expression conveyed.

As for the rivalry, it can be summed up in these words; Phil currently owns Tiger. The last five times they have ben paired together, Phil has put up a better score; three of those times he has won the event. It’s like the old joke about the Yankees and the Red Sox; calling that a rivalry is like saying there is a rivalry between a hammer and a nail.

It’s way early in the season and there is only so much that can be extrapolated from one event, from one round … but let’s give it a whirl. Phil has clearly found another gear, but it’s one thing to have it on Sunday in February and quite another to have it on the four Sundays that mean the most. Woods is clearly playing good golf, but without the ability to close the deal he will be will conjure up fewer comparisons to Jack and more comparisons to Sergio. Augusta will be epic. Epic.

Ironically, Tiger can find some solace in Mickelson’s performance. Their lives have parallels that can be instructive for Woods. Before Winged Foot in 2007, Mickelson was attempting to win his third consecutive major and become the dominant player in the world. After Winged Foot, his psyche was shattered in a similar the way that Woods’ was. Mickelson was beset with challenges off the course as well as on the course, challenges that demanded more of him as a man than as a golfer. He has come through the storms and he is a better man and quite possibly a better golfer. This is precisely the outcome that Woods is seeking.

As for Mickelson, his 40^th Tour win puts him in a different place. He is one of only nine golfers to achieve that feat, putting him one clear of Tom Watson and just a few back of the great Walter Hagen. At 41, he can look to supplant Vijay Singh as the gold standard for late-career success. He is healthy, confident and at peace. But he should not get complacent. Predatory cats in the rear view mirror are bigger, better and more determined than they appear.

Michael Williams is the contributing editor of Newschannel8 Capital Golf Weekly and Bunkershot.com, as well as a member of the Golf Writers Association of America.

You can follow Michael on twitter — @Michaelontv